AAMC reports growing physician shortage
A new report from the Association of American Medical Colleges says the United States is likely to face a shortfall of 124,000 physicians by 2025.
According to Michael Dill and Edward Salsberg, authors of the study, "projecting a physician shortage after many shortages have already been identified may draw criticism as being too conservative an approach to physician workforce planning."
"The study is intended to move beyond the idea of a simple shortage to portray the complexities of assessing the physician workforce and the need to perform such assessments more than three or four times each century," they said.
The 94-page report, titled The Complexities of Physician Supply and Demand: Projections Through 2025, attributes the shortage to population growth and aging, among other factors.
"Simply educating and training more physicians will not be enough to address these shortages," said Dill and Salsberg. "Complex changes such as improving efficiency, reconfiguring the way some services are delivered and making better use of our physicians will also be needed."
Increasing the number of doctors is necessary, but it won't be enough, the authors said. In the coming years, the nation will need to transform the way healthcare is delivered, financed and used.
According to the report, the nation is likely to experience a shortage of physicians which will grow more acute over time. Though the supply of physicians is projected to increase modestly between now and 2025 (the U.S. Census Bureau predicts an increase of more than 50 million, to 350 million), the demand for physicians is projected to increase even more sharply.
In addition, the report says, an aging population may drive demand sharply upward for specialties that predominantly
serve the elderly, as well as creating a considerable increase in the demand for physician services. That growth could double if visit rates by age continue to increase at the same pace they have in recent years Ð with the greatest growth in use among those 75 years or older.
According to the report, universal healthcare coverage could add 4 percent to the overall demand for physicians, increasing the projected physician shortfall by 31,000 physicians (25 percent).
Future demand for physicians, the report concluded, would be significantly reduced if physician assistants and nurse practitioners play a larger role in patient care.
The last report AAMC issued, in June 2006, included a recommendation for a 30 percent increase in U.S. medical school enrollment and an expansion of graduate medical education positions to accommodate the growth.
