ACA open enrollment defies 'death spiral' prediction based on premium changes

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services is on track to continue a successful open enrollment period despite the uncertainty over the continuation of the Affordable Care Act under a new administration, Health and Human Services officials said Tuesday.

A repeal and delay of the ACA would create, "unprecedented uncertainties," said Aviva Aron-Dine, senior counselor to the secretary of Health and Human Services.

[Also: President Obama challenges Republicans to replace ACA before they repeal it]

Through the end of January, CMS plans to run additional TV and radio advertising, send targeted emails to consumers, and promote coverage through Twitch, YouTube, Instagram and Facebook. 

CMS officials did not directly answer whether the current TV ads and other promotions for open enrollment would continue after current administrators at HHS and CMS are out out of power. President-elect Donald Trump will be inaugurated on Jan. 20.

"We're on track to do good work," said Christen Linke Young, principal deputy director of the Center for Consumer Information and Insurance Oversight at CMS.

[Also: Obamacare repeal without replace would cost $140 billion in funding, kill more than 2 million jobs]

GOP Congressional leaders are considering a repeal of President Obama's signature healthcare law, with a delayed replacement.

Twenty million Americans have coverage through Obamacare, HHS said, but 30 million could lose coverage under a repeal. The additional 10 million represent those who could lose coverage due to a disruption in the individual market, Arin-Dine said.

Should the ACA remain, the market is on track for better pricing stability, she said.

"This assumes a stable policy environment," she said. "Repeal and delay leaves our healthcare system poised on the edge of a cliff."

During open enrollment, the call center has gotten calls from consumers asking about potential policy changes, Linke Young said.

However, it hasn't stopped large numbers from signing up for coverage, according to officials.

[Also: More consumers signed up during open enrollment this year than last]

More than 11.5 million people have signed up for ACA coverage from November 1, when open enrollment began, to December 24. This number outpaces figures from last year by 286,000 plan selections, CMS said.

Totals include 8.9 million returning consumers and 2.6 million new consumers.

In addition, more than 700,000 New Yorkers and Minnesotans also signed up for 2017 coverage through their state's Basic Health Programs, bringing the total signed up for coverage to 12.2 million.

Open enrollment ends January 31. January 15 is the deadline to get coverage that starts on February 1.

"Nationwide demand for health coverage is higher than ever, as Americans prove again that Marketplace coverage is vital to them and their families," said Health and Human Services Secretary Sylvia M. Burwell, who will be replaced by Rep. Tom Price, R-Georgia should he receive Congressional confirmation.

The growing demand for marketplace coverage refutes predictions that 2017 premiums changes would lead to sharp declines in enrollment and a so-called "death spiral," CMS said.

In the 39 states using the Healthcare.gov enrollment platform for 2017, more than 8.7 million people signed up for coverage including, 840,000 children, 2.3 million adults ages 18-34, 3.2 million adults ages 35-54, and 2.5 million older Americans.

The share of consumers age 18-34 who signed up is 26 percent, the same as last year at this time, CMS said.

Most Healthcare.gov consumers can find a plan for less than $75 per month in premiums, according to CMS. The average deductible is $850.

Among the 7.2 million Healthcare.gov consumers who will receive tax credits, tax credits will reduce premiums by an average of $386 per month, CMS said.

Among Healthcare.gov returning consumers, 65 percent came back to the marketplace, an increase from last year's already high 60 percent active renewal rate.

Twitter: @SusanJMorse