Americans brace for a fifth wave of the pandemic this winter

Dr. David Dowdy and Rupali J. Limaye of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

 

 

Photo: Courtesy John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

COVID-19 cases are on the rise again heading into the colder months as people gather indoors, causing fear over a fifth wave of the pandemic.

The fears are valid, according to Bloomberg School of Public Health experts.

"The possibility of a winter surge here is very real," said Dr. David Dowdy, associate professor, Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. 

Dowdy and Rupali J. Limaye, PhD, spoke during a Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health media briefing Wednesday on "A COVID-19 Endgame: How Do We Get Across the Finish Line." 

But a fifth wave this winter does not mean overcrowded ICUs and makeshift morgues as was the case last year, he said. This year compared to last winter, a rising number of cases does not translate into serious illness and death for most vaccinated individuals, he said.

For the vaccinated, a coronavirus infection will feel much like the flu, Dowdy said.

However, only 60% of the population in the United States is vaccinated, said Limaye, director of behavioral and implementation science of the International Vaccine Access Center, and associate scientist for the Departments of International Health, Epidemiology, and Health, Behavior and Society at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

COVID-19 is here to stay, both Limaye and Dowdy said, and not just for another season.

"Zero COVID is not going to happen," Dowdy said.

Dowdy said he believes herd immunity, as people conceptualize it, is likely not achievable. 

The question then becomes how the United States can get to a level of the illness it can tolerate as a society.

"No one asks," he said, "'When is the end of the flu?', for example."

WHY THIS MATTERS

Cases have started to rise again in most states, according to Dowdy. Vaccines and new treatments make the difference this year, Limaye said.

Unvaccinated individuals fill hospitals because they get more seriously ill.

While the number of cases in Europe is greater than that of the United States, from a death perspective, the U.S. and Europe are trending the same, according to Dowdy. For the past two-to-three months, mortality rates have been higher in the United States, he said. 

However, Dowdy said, "What we're seeing in Europe doesn't mean we're in for a huge surge in the United States."

THE LARGER TREND

This summer, after COVID-19 vaccines became widely available, CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said, "This is becoming a pandemic of the unvaccinated." 

Since the pandemic began, Johns Hopkins has kept track of the number of coronavirus cases and deaths worldwide on a COVID-19 dashboard. Currently, total cases total over 255 million, with over 5 million deaths. Over 7 billion vaccine doses have been administered.

The United States has recorded over 47 million cases and 767,450 deaths. 

Twitter: @SusanJMorse
Email the writer: susan.morse@himssmedia.com