MLB veteran Theo Epstein: There's a parallel between baseball and analytics

Reid Oakes, left, executive vice president of Analytics for HIMSS, talks to MLB veteran Theo Epstein about Moneyball, analytics and what they have in common with healthcare. 

Photo: Oscar & Associates for HIMSS

There's a parallel between analytics and baseball, said Major League Baseball  veteran Theo Epstein, speaking during the HIMSS21 CIO Forum in Las Vegas.

Since baseball has taken on a Moneyball mentality by relying on analytics about a player as much as scouting reports, the parallels between baseball and healthcare can be readily seen. Analytics can aid decisions, but taken too far, it can get in the way of the human factor.

When Epstein first began his career in baseball right out of college in the 1990s, he worked for the San Diego Padres, where there was no reliance on analytics. Scouting reports were the only factor.

A newly-hired statistical analyst who relied purely on metrics didn't even want to see the players play, Epstein said. The analyst and the scout hated each other, as was the case in other clubhouses, until Epstein sent the analyst on the road with the scouting manager.

When Epstein moved to the Red Sox, the scouting report would never have suggested that a short, chubby player named Dustin Pedroia would become Rookie of the Year or Most Valuable Player. But the stats of Pedroia's scrappy, can-do performance showed otherwise.

When other teams began developing similar capabilities, analytics moved to the next level through the development of neuroscience, which is essentially a computer game, Epstein said.

During the 2011 draft, the consensus was that one player was a 10th-round pick, a better bowler than baseball player. But after a neuroscience test showed a score of 99.9, on the level of a Dustin Pedroia or David Ortiz, Mookie Betts joined the Red Sox. 

In terms of ROI for the neuroscience test, Betts returned $300 million worth of value, Epstein said.

However, when too much attention is put on analytics and stats, something gets lost in the game. Transparency with players is important, for one thing. "Every big player has been lied to or thinks he's been lied to," Epstein said.

When players are treated only as assets, it's very hard to build a culture.

If you don't have a good culture, when there's a losing streak or a bad performance, there's nothing to fall back on. In a good team culture, one person elevates the other and takes an interest. Teams that don't have this ability very seldom win, he said.

There's also an awakening on the importance of mental health in sports.

Epstein has been part of three World Series Championship teams: in 2004 and 2007 with the Boston Red Sox, and 2016 with the Chicago Cubs. In all cases, the players moved from thinking only about their role on the team to thinking about the team as something bigger than themselves. 

"The most powerful tool is not some tool that predicts future performance. It's getting to that feeling of being part of something bigger than yourself," he said. 

"I've been part of three championship teams, seen that every time. You start thinking about what it means for the group."
 
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Email the writer: susan.morse@himssmedia.com