National health spending is expected to grow 5.4% annually over the next decade
This will outpace average annual growth in gross domestic product of 4.6%, resulting in an increase in the health spending share of GDP.
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The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services projects that over 2022 to 2031, average annual growth in National Health Expenditures of 5.4% will outpace average annual growth in gross domestic product of 4.6%, resulting in an increase in the health spending share of GDP from 18.3% in 2021 to 19.6% in 2031.
CMS' Office of the Actuary released the projections of National Health Expenditures and health insurance enrollment for the years 2022-2031.
WHY THIS MATTERS
The report contains expected impacts from the Inflation Reduction Act, including that people with Medicare Part D prescription drug coverage are projected to experience lower out-of-pocket spending on prescription drugs for 2024 and beyond as several provisions from the law begin to take effect.
The insured percentage of the population is projected to have reached a historic high of 92.3% in 2022, due to high Medicaid enrollment and gains in Marketplace coverage. It is expected to remain at that rate through 2023.
Given the expiration of the Medicaid continuous enrollment condition on March 31, 2023 and the resumption of Medicaid redeterminations, Medicaid enrollment is projected to fall over 2023 to 2025, most notably in 2024, with an expected net loss in enrollment of 8 million beneficiaries.
If current law provisions in the Affordable Care Act are allowed to expire at the end of 2025, the insured share of the population is projected to be 91.2%. In 2031, the insured share of the population is projected to be 90.5%, similar to pre-pandemic levels.
THE LARGER TREND
The NHE is published annually and is often referred to as the "official" estimates of U.S. health spending and health insurance enrollment.
The historical and projected estimates of NHE measure total annual spending for the delivery of healthcare goods and services by type, such as hospital, physician or prescription drugs, and by payer.
Twitter: @SusanJMorse
Email the writer: SMorse@himss.org
