Northwell warns of tripledemic surge fueled by holiday gatherings
COVID-19 cases have risen 30% in the weeks after Thanksgiving even as RSV trends down the health system says.
Dr. Dwayne Breining is medical director of Northwell Health Labs.
Photo: Courtesy of Northwell Health
Northwell Health clinical experts are warning of a potential "tripledemic" surge as people gather to celebrate Hanukkah, Christmas, Kwanzaa and the New Year.
Healthcare workers are bracing for a winter surge unlike any previously seen, according to the New York health system. Respiratory syncytial virus, combined with an early start to flu season, has already left hospitals operating at capacity. Now in the wake of holiday celebrations comes the possibility of even more cases, Northwell said.
While RSV is trending down after a hectic fall, COVID-19 cases have jumped 30% in the weeks after Thanksgiving.
The latest COVID-19 variants – XBB and BQ are related to Omicron – have been identified locally and hospitalizations have risen steadily since October.
A leading Northwell pediatrician sounded the alarm for children in particular. "We're not over this yet," said Dr. Sophia Jan, chief of division for general pediatrics at Cohen Children's Medical Center. "We're up 150% for sick visits compared to this time last year and 300% from two years ago. Those numbers keep rising. While we have a little bit of a reprieve with RSV, we're still seeing RSV. And the number of kids coming in with Flu A are only going up."
Just 40% of hospitalized cases are for incidental COVID-19, a stark drop from earlier this year, when more than half of COVID-positive patients were hospitalized for reasons other than the virus.
Northwell is urging people to take common sense precautions such as masking in crowded indoor spaces, getting vaccinated for flu and COVID-19 and staying home if they don't feel well.
WHY THIS MATTERS
A large number of cases include non-COVID-19 coronavirus, rhinovirus, enterovirus and adenoviruses, Northwell said.
A national shortage of antiviral medications is complicating outpatient treatment, but not at the hospital level, where supplies remain adequate.
On Tuesday, Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra and Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Robert Califf spoke with senior leadership from major medicine manufacturers and distributors on the current production and distribution of over-the-counter pediatric medicines.
All the companies shared that they are running manufacturing facilities 24-7 to meet demand, that supplies of these products are being replenished as quickly as possible and that there is no widespread shortage of pediatric medicines, HHS said.
HHS has increased Tamiflu access through Strategic National Stockpile. Pharmacies, such as CVS and Walgreens, have been limiting the sale of pain and fever medications due to demand.
THE LARGER TREND
Northwell Health Labs has processed more than five million COVID-19 tests since the beginning of the pandemic.
The 100,000-square-foot lab in New Hyde Park processes 20,000 specimens per day and 30 million per year from a footprint that includes New York City, Long Island and Westchester.
More than 9,000 positive influenza cases have gone through the lab, three times the volume of a pre-pandemic flu season to this point.
One in every four tests is positive for flu, with the flu season expected to peak in late January, said Dr. Dwayne Breining, medical director of Northwell Health Labs.
"We're expecting cases to bump up after Christmas, Hanukkah, Kwanzaa and New Year's celebrations, so we're keeping a close eye on that," Breining said. "And we have not peaked yet with the flu, so we expect to be in this for the next month or two."
ON THE RECORD
"I just want to emphasize that primary vaccination – both against influenza and with the bivalent COVID-19 vaccine – really remains the mainstay," said Dr. Matthew Harris, medical director of crisis management and emergency preparedness at Northwell Health. "What makes this winter particularly challenging is, in addition to the volume of patients, the fact that many of the treatments that we have for COVID-19, such as monoclonal antibodies, are not effective against the current variants. It remains a subject of significant concern."
Twitter: @SusanJMorse
Email the writer: SMorse@himss.org
