Vaccination rates for Blacks and Hispanics could lead to wider disparities

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COVID-19 vaccination rates are lower among Blacks and Hispanics than for other groups, and will likely remain lower even after the country has met its vaccination goals, which could lead to widening disparities and hamper recovery from the pandemic, new research finds.

Based on the data analyzed by Stanford University and the Kaiser Family Foundation, 65% of those ages 12 and older would be at least partially vaccinated by July 4, if the current vaccination pace holds. But rates would be lower for Hispanics, and especially Black people.

WHAT'S THE IMPACT?

Asian people are the only group estimated to exceed a 70% vaccination rate, while white people (66%) and Hispanic people (63%) will be shy of reaching this level, and only about half (51%) of Black people will have received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose by July 4, based on current trends.

If the current pace of vaccination continues, Hispanic people nationally would reach a 70% threshold by the end of July (July 27) and white people would reach this threshold by early August (August 2), but Black people would still not have reached this coverage level by the beginning of September. Hispanic people are projected to reach 70% coverage faster than white people, despite having a lower rate of vaccination as of July 4, because their recent pace of vaccination has been faster than their white counterparts.

To reach a 70% vaccination rate by July 4, the pace of vaccination would need to increase substantially in many states, particularly for Black people. Nationally, the daily pace of new vaccinations would need to be 7% faster than the current pace to achieve 70% vaccination coverage among Hispanic people ages 12 and older by July 4, while the pace for Black people would need to be over two and a half times faster than the current pace.

The increases in vaccination rates needed to reach this coverage level also vary across states. The pace would need to at least double in 24 of 44 states reporting data for Hispanic people, 24 of 47 states reporting data for white people, and 36 of 47 states reporting data for Black people.

If the pace of new vaccinations continues to slow even further, disparities between groups in achieving progress toward coverage goals would persist, the report found. For example, a slowdown of 25% would mean that, overall, the share of those ages 12 and older estimated to have received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose would drop from 65% to 64%. 

Asian people would still reach a 70% coverage rate. Coverage among white people would remain below this threshold, with 65% receiving at least one dose. There would be larger gaps for Hispanic and Black people, with 61% and 50% receiving at least one dose by July 4, respectively. These patterns play out at the state level as well.

THE LARGER TREND

In May, the Biden Administration set a goal of getting 70% of adults at least one vaccine dose, and 160 million Americans fully vaccinated, by July 4.

The plan to achieve this goal is to shift the focus to accessibility, with same-day and walk-in vaccinations being offered by pharmacies participating in the federal pharmacy program, and mobile and pop-up vaccination clinics made possible with redirected funds from the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
 

Twitter: @JELagasse
Email the writer: jeff.lagasse@himssmedia.com