Analysts are split on how Trump presidency will impact Anthem-Cigna, Aetna-Humana mergers

Speculation on how a Trump administration would affect healthcare has filtered into the upcoming proposed insurance mega-mergers.

Some experts say the Anthem-Cigna and Aetna-Humana deals have a better chance of going through now that Donald Trump is president-elect.

Trump's win coupled with a Republican majority in both Houses of Congress likely paves the way for Aetna's merger with Humana Inc., according to Investopedia. Aetna's stock was up over 10 percent Wednesday for the week following the election, the published report said.

[Also: Anthem/Cigna outspend Aetna/Humana in 3rd quarter lobbying as their merger trials near]

Analysts speculate a Republican-led Department of Justice could affect antitrust reviews of both mergers.

However, Bloomberg reports that Trump is anti-merger, having verbally come down hard against the proposed $85 billion deal for AT&T to acquire Time Warner.

The $54 billion Anthem-Cigna merger trial will get underway Monday, Nov. 21 in U.S. District Court in Washington, D.C., followed on Dec. 5 by the court case over Aetna's $37 billion proposal to acquire Humana.

The DOJ blocked both mergers this summer based on antitrust and competitive concerns. The deals would bring the top five insurers down to three, including UnitedHealth.

[Also: Court sides with DOJ on merger letters]

Ahead of its trial, Aetna is seeking to depose CMS Acting Administrator Andy Slavitt, who formerly worked for UnitedHealthcare, to aid its defense, according to the Hartford Courant. The DOJ is against it, saying Slavitt has no firsthand knowledge of the case.

Experts have said they see the DOJ's anti-competitive arguments harder to overcome in the Anthem and Cigna case, as compared to Aetna and Humana, which focuses more on the Medicare Advantage market.

In a pre-trial brief filed Nov. 10, Anthem tried to turn around the DOJ's antitrust argument saying the merger would likely reduce healthcare costs by permitting a better collaboration with providers, which could be translated to a reduction in reimbursement rates.

The rates for the Cigna membership Anthem acquires would be the generally lower rates paid by Cigna, according to the brief.

[Also: Feds accuse Aetna/Humana attempting to derail merger challenge by blocking CMS defendants]

This would also allow self-insured employers to realize lower rates, countering the DOJ's argument that the merger would leave national accounts with only three meaningful options.

Anthem said this assumes the nation's biggest corporations would meekly submit to an attempted price increase.

"Evidence and reason would suggest otherwise," Anthem said.

Anthem holds a Blue Cross Blue Shield license in 14 non-contiguous states. Cigna has a 50-state footprint, according to court documents.

Its closest competitor is UnitedHealthcare, not Cigna, Anthem said. Cigna's closest rival is Aetna.

Anthem would continue to compete with Cigna in 36 states where Anthem does not hold a Blue license.

"The merger will, in short, create a formidable national competitor, with an advantageous cost structure and an improved array of product offerings," said Attorney Christopher Curran, of White & Case in Washington, D.C.

Twitter: @SusanJMorse