CBO score says 32 million more uninsured and premiums to double should GOP only repeal the Affordable Care Act
Premiums in the individual market would increase by about 25 percent next year, reach 50 percent in 2020 and double by 2026, CBO said.
Repeal of the Affordable Care Act would increase the number of uninsured Americans to 32 million over the next nine years, double the cost of premiums for individual plans during that time and reduce the deficit by $473 billion, according to the Congressional Budget Office and the Joint Committee on Taxation.
The Obamacare Repeal Reconciliation Act of 2017, which would repeal many provisions of the ACA, would increase the number of people who are uninsured by 17 million in 2018. That number would increase to 27 million in 2020 after the elimination of Medicaid expansion and subsidies for insurance purchased through the exchanges, and then to 32 million by 2026.
Premiums in the individual market would increase by about 25 percent and reach 50 percent in 2020, the CBO said. By 2026, premiums would be expected to double.
The CBO and the Joint Committee on Taxation released its report Wednesday.
[Also: Numbers of uninsured changes little from House version of healthcare bill, CBO score estimates]
By 2020, about half of the nation's population would live in areas where no insurer was participating in the nongroup market because of lack of pressure on enrollment from the lack of an individual or employer mandate, and higher premiums, the CBO report said. This would extend to three-quarters of the population by 2026.
The Obamacare Repeal Reconciliation Act of 2017, an amendment acting as a substitute to the Senate Bill pulled by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell this week, would decrease deficits by $473 billion between 2017 and 2026. This would come from decreased spending for Medicaid of $842 billion by 2026, another $454 billion cut from spending on tax credits and an increase of $613 billion due to the loss of taxes on high-income people, the annual fee imposed on health insurers, and the excise taxes under the ACA.
[Also: Providers say replace, payers still waiting for CSR stability, as McConnell scraps Senate bill]
Molina Healthcare, which is in the ACA market, said by statement this week before the CBO released its report that a repeal of the ACA without having a replacement plan would increase premiums and put coverage at risk for millions of Americans due to the amendment ending Medicaid expansion and removing the individual and employer mandate.
"The bedrock of any coverage system is a requirement that people must obtain health insurance," Molina said by statement. "This principle underpins why states mandate that all drivers have car insurance, why homeowners are required to insure their homes – it is what makes insurance markets work successfully. The lack of such a requirement will be detrimental to the individual market risk pool and will result in adverse selection, which would significantly increase costs."
The repeal would eliminate the cost-sharing reductions in the individual market which would cause insurers to substantially raise premiums to account for the higher costs and uncertainty, Molina said, citing a previous CBO report that the lack of a mandate alone would be sufficient to increase premiums by 15 percent.
McConnell has said that any planned vote on ACA repeal can be amended on the floor. He plans to move forward next week on a procedural vote to move forward.
[Also: McConnell vows to move ahead on ACA repeal and delay]
Republican Senators Susan Collins of Maine, Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska have said they would vote against a motion to proceed on such a measure.
President Trump on Wednesday told legislators not to leave the Capitol for the August recess until a healthcare bill is passed.
Twitter: @SusanJMorse
