The pandemic is entering a new phase, but it's not over, expert says

Dr. David Dowdy, associate professor, Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, spoke Tuesday about the next phase of the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

Photo: Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health 

As the United States closes in on a million deaths due to COVID-19, experts from Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health on Tuesday weighed in on what's next during "A New Phase of COVID-19: What Lies Ahead – from Surges to Long-Haulers." 

In the last three weeks, COVID-19 cases have been rising again to levels not seen since the Delta variant surge last year, according to Dr. David Dowdy, associate professor, Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, and a physician with Baltimore Medical Services.

Unlike the Delta variant, the new Omicron variants are not causing the same rise in hospitalization and deaths, he said. Currently, the rate of hospitalizations is slowly rising, and the average case of COVID-19 does seem to be getting milder.

Deaths follow hospitalizations by a few weeks.

COVID-19 deaths have fallen 75% over the past few months, Dowdy said. On April 27, Dr. Anthony Fauci, chief medical advisor to President Biden, declared the U.S. was out of the pandemic phase.

But with many people testing for COVID-19 at home, the number of confirmed cases is no longer an indicator of the rate of infection, Dowdy said. 

Around the globe, 2,000 people are dying of COVID-19 every day, according to Dowdy.  More than 3 billion people – mostly children and in poorer countries – are still not fully vaccinated, he said.

The question is, he said, what criteria needs to be met for the pandemic to be over? 

"Even though the pandemic is entering a new phase," Dowdy said, "it's not over. In some ways, we're already in the midst of a surge. We can't rule out another wave in the coming months."

Priya Duggal, Ph.D., professor, Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, is working on a study of long COVID, defined as those suffering from effects of the virus – such as loss of taste and smell – three months after testing positive.

The study currently has 15,000 people and has the aim of enrolling 25,000.

At the moment, there are no specific long COVID treatments, Duggal said.

The Department of Health and Human Services last year declared long COVID a disability under the Americans with Disabilities Act, which helps support those who cannot return to work or normal activities due to the long-term effects of COVID-19.
 
WHY THIS MATTERS

The current public health emergency is scheduled to end in mid-July, with HHS previously giving indications of the end of the PHE, but promising providers 60 days' notice.

The end of the PHE means an end to waivers and flexibilities allowed to providers during the pandemic, such as for telehealth and acute care at home.

Hospitals are seeing uncertainty over cases and surges, while continuing to struggle financially from two years of being on the front lines of the pandemic.

In a May 10 letter to HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra, the American Hospital Association, among more than a dozen provider organizations, including the American Medical Association, urged the Biden Administration to maintain the public health emergency until it is clear that the global pandemic has receded and the capabilities authorized by the PHE are no longer necessary. 

THE LARGER TREND

Former HHS Secretary Alex Azar issued the first PHE declaration for COVID-19 on January 31, 2020. It has been renewed nine times over two years, with the latest extension approved in April by current HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra.

Twitter: @SusanJMorse
Email the writer: susan.morse@himssmedia.com