Medical school enrollments rise, but not enough to stem physician shortages

According to a new survey by the American Association of Medical Colleges, first-year medical school enrollment will be up 23 percent from 2002-2003 by 2015, but is not on track to meet the goal AAMC set for a 30 percent increase between 2002 and 2018.

In addition, U.S. demand for physicians will increase by an additional 4 percent under the new healthcare reform law, creating a shortage of 124,000 physicians by 2025.

Growth over the past few years is attributed to increased enrollment at medical schools that expanded prior to 2002, the research showed. Over the next several years, growth is expected to come from both new and old schools, with new schools enrolling the bulk of enrollees after 2015, the study revealed.

Between 2002 and 2009 more than 82 percent of accredited medical schools responded to the need for physicians by expanding their enrollment, this year's survey found.

Forty-nine percent of the 126 schools surveyed said they are working on initiatives to encourage more students to go into primary care medicine.

According to the survey, despite the increases expected in enrollment, there will still be challenges in finding enough residency positions for the graduates.

At a recent AAMC conference, Edward Salsberg, director for the AAMC's Center for Workforce Studies, said despite the projected challenges, the new healthcare reform law should provide the academic medicine community with a welcome opportunity for innovation.

"What gives me hope is that there's this new reality out there that the current system is unsustainable," Salsberg said. "It really is up to us to make the future. Americans are going to look to us to help them find ways to improve access to better care."