10 million expected to sign up for Obamacare, HHS says

Ten million people are expected to get health insurance coverage through the Obamacare insurance exchanges by the end of 2016, Health and Human Services Secretary Sylvia Burwell announced Thursday, as the government sees more conservative growth in the future than it had hoped.

While that would represent a bump compared to the 9.1 million who signed up in the prior year, the figure falls short of the 21 million people projected by the Congressional Budget Office.

Earlier estimates assumed some employers would drop coverage for their employees, who would then sign up through the marketplace. Yet employer plans have remained consistent, according to the release.

The Affordable Care Act coverage is going into its third year as Republican presidential candidates, such as Jeb Bush with "JebCare," are pitch plans to replace President Obama's signature healthcare law if they will the election.

[Also: Enrollment in employer insurance unchanged under Obamacare]

Health and Human Services aims to have one out of every four uninsured Americans select plans during open enrollment, which begins November 1 and runs into January 2016. This translates to 11 to 14.1 million people, with not all expected to stay on the plan and paying through the end of 2016.

Survey data shows the uninsured have concerns about whether they can afford coverage. Nearly 8 in 10 people without insurance received less than $1,000 in savings in subsidies, and about half have less than $100 in savings. Almost 60 percent are either confused about how the premium tax credits work or don't know that they are available.

An estimated 7.3 to 8.8 million people who had Marketplace coverage in 2015 will reenroll in 2016, according to Thursday's announcement. About 2.8 to 3.9 million of the roughly 10.5 million eligible uninsured will select plans during open enrollment, Burwell said.

That means an estimated 900,000 to 1.5 million people who are now insured through commercial and other plans will switch to the marketplace plan in 2016.

[Also: Baptist Health System becomes poster child for payment reform under Obamacare]

Nearly 8 in 10 of the about 10.5 million uninsured people eligible for qualified health plans may be eligible for financial help through the marketplaces, Burwell said.

"We believe 10 million is a strong and realistic goal," Burwell said. "We've seen high levels of satisfaction with the Marketplace and expect the majority of our current customers will reenroll."

Uninsured demographics show almost half are between the ages of 18 and 34; almost 40 percent are living between 139 and 250 percent of the poverty level; more than a third are minorities, and around 57 percent are men.

In 2015, roughly 85 percent of marketplace consumers received an average tax credit of around $270 per month.

Here is the March report from the CBO:

Twitter: @SusanJMorse